ICES Journal of Marine Science

Given unprecedented environmental change, Pacific salmonids are becoming increasingly threatened; however, genomic technologies provide an opportunity to assess Pacific salmonid resilience to on-going environmental change. Also, given increasing conservation and animal welfare concerns, non-lethal tissue sampling is emerging for assessing the physiological status of wild species. Relatively few studies, however, have compared the transcriptomic response of fish sampled non-lethally versus lethally for fish health and stress quantification. Here, we conducted a comparative gene transcriptional profiling study using 28 qPCR assays on the OpenArray platform as an osmoregulatory stress transcriptional profiling chip. We sampled both non-lethal (gill biopsies, skin swabs, and water [eRNA]) and lethal (whole gill and liver) tissue samples from Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) smolts exposed for 0 h, 24 h, and 72 h to freshwater (0 PSU), brackish water (15 PSU) or seawater (30 PSU). We observed that most assays showed higher qPCR amplification success in both non-lethal gill biopsies and lethal gill tissues, compared to other tissues. We found more significant differences in transcript abundance in traditional lethal tissues compared to non-lethal tissues. With increasing duration of salinity exposure, gene transcript levels were typically upregulated in seawater samples compared to freshwater samples for both non-lethal and lethal tissues. The targeted genes for both non-lethal and lethal tissues were significantly and positively correlated across time points. Our findings support the use of non-lethal tissue sampling to improve Chinook salmon hatchery rearing, inform hatchery release timing, and facilitate future field application for the conservation of wild stocks.

Fishery-dependent indices of abundance are often used to inform stock assessments, but fishing effort is generally not randomly distributed. Fishers concentrate sampling in locations expected to be profitable, leading to a form of preferential sampling that can bias model-based indices of abundance. We show that when the strength of preferential sampling is constant over time, it biases only the magnitude of an index, which is absorbed by estimated catchability parameters in most stock assessments. A more interesting case arises when the strength of preferential sampling changes over time; in these cases the index trend can be biased in a way that conventional catchability estimation cannot correct. Using simulations structured on long running trawl survey data from the west coast of the USA for shortspine thornyhead (Sebastolobus alascanus), we evaluate two structurally different methods for correcting time-varying trend bias: a joint spatiotemporal model of the density and sampling processes, and a discrete-choice model of fisher location choice. Our simulations include two mechanisms generating preferential biases: effort tracking local density, and effort responding to a spatially structured, but unobserved anomaly that also inflates catch. We show that the ability of the estimation methods to correct bias depends on the mechanism responsible for concentrating effort; while the joint model is robust to both data-generating mechanisms, the discrete choice model is only able to correct biases when the mechanism is anomaly-driven. As a real-world case study, we apply these corrections to simulated preferentially sampled data and include indices in the shortspine thornyhead stock assessment model. We found that uncorrected time-varying preferential sampling positively biased estimates of a major recruitment event and, to a lesser extent, unfished recruitment. This bias propagated through to bias in overfishing limits that grew as the population was projected forward. While bias-corrected indices still produced some positive biases in overfishing limits, these were substantially reduced compared to the naive approach. As the mechanism of preferential sampling is rarely known in advance, our results suggest that the joint model represents a robust default for correcting fishery-dependent indices of abundance.

Okanagan sockeye salmon have shown a strong recovery over the past three decades, but the contribution of environmental conditions and management actions to this recovery has not been determined. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model linking spawner abundances to fry emergence observations to evaluate how flow and water temperature during adult upstream migration and incubation periods influence spawner-to-fry production. Production declined by 62% in years with earlier onset and longer duration of periods when warm river temperatures created barriers to adult migration, indicating that migration conditions can have carry-over effects on reproductive success even when spawners successfully reach the spawning grounds. Additionally, production was 46% lower when flows fell above or below the management target range designed to minimize scour and desiccation during egg incubation. In contrast, we found little support for effects of pre-spawning flows or incubation temperature on production. These findings provide quantitative evidence that current flow management is increasing freshwater spawner-to-fry production and has likely contributed to the Okanagan sockeye recovery. Effective flow management may therefore help offset climate-driven impacts that increasingly threaten this population.

The Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) is a small pelagic fish. It is the largest singlespecies fishery in the world and it is used mainly for the production of fishmeal and fish oil. The Peruvian hake (Merluccius gayi) is a predatory demersal fish that is valued for direct human consumption, mainly as frozen products. In this study, I compared the response of both species to certain fishing mortality scenarios using a climatological set-up of the multispecies model OSMOSE for the northern Humboldt Current System. I observed that hake landings benefit from a decreased fishing pressure. In addition, the resilience of the anchovy fishery may increase if a higher threshold for their minimum catch size was implemented. The results of this study provide insights into better management strategies that could be beneficial for the two species based on their life-strategies.

1. Common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) are the most abundant cetaceans off mainland Portugal and a species of conservation and bycatch concern, so reliable abundance estimates are a management priority. Yet no single survey provides adequate spatiotemporal coverage: dedicated programmes offer sparse snapshots, while opportunistic programmes are spatially constrained by their routes. Integrating them is methodologically demanding, and the existing methods that do so in a single model estimate the density of animal groups, not of the individual animals that management often requires. 2. We develop a spatiotemporal marked log-Gaussian Cox process that integrates four structurally distinct surveys through a shared intensity surface, comprising environmental covariates, a latent spatial field, and survey-specific detection functions. Group size enters as a zero-truncated negative binomial mark with its own spatiotemporal field. We apply it to a dedicated aerial survey and three opportunistic ship-based programmes off mainland Portugal, comprising 162,514 km of on-effort transects and 1,756 sightings of 17,000 animals. We fit the model in a Bayesian framework with integrated nested Laplace approximations, yielding seasonally resolved group and animal density surfaces across the Portuguese Exclusive Economic Zone, and abundance estimates with fully propagated uncertainty. 3. Predicted animal density concentrated over the shelf and upper slope in every season, peaking northwest, and increased in shallower, cooler, more productive waters and over steeper seabed. Abundance nearly doubled from summer (77,000 [95% credible interval: 60,000, 98,000]) to winter (146,000 [99,000, 208,000]). Seasons shared 56% of the spatial field's variance, so effort from any programme in any season informed all others, and the seasonal contrast remained estimable despite uneven coverage. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our framework allows managers to combine dedicated surveys with existing platforms of opportunity to estimate animal density by season. Because group size is modelled explicitly, densities are estimated in animals rather than groups, as required for bycatch risk assessment and marine spatial planning. Because each survey enters through its own observation model, the approach accommodates programmes that differ in platform and protocol and transfers to any species or region where several surveys each cover part of a population.

The decline in fishery yields in Japan's enclosed coastal seas has been accompanied by a reduction in phytoplankton biomass, suggesting a widespread decrease in ecosystem productivity. Oligotrophication in Mikawa Bay has caused substantial declines in phytoplankton biomass and Manila clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) production. To assess whether external nutrient enhancement could stimulate phytoplankton growth, a controlled demonstration experiment using treated effluent from two sewage treatment plants (WWTPs) was conducted (spanning fiscal years 2022 to 2024) based on analysis using a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic model. Although effluent DIP and nitrogen concentrations were increased, model results showed that WWTP-derived nutrients represent only a minor portion of the total nutrient budget. Field observations revealed limited increases in surface water phosphorus, strong seasonal variability, and only temporary rises in chlorophyll-a and clam harvests. Monthly TP data demonstrated that seasonal DIP pulses, especially spring phosphorus bursts, dominate nutrient dynamics and overshadow external loading effects. Laboratory experiments further showed that phosphate is efficiently fixed by Fe(III) under oxidizing conditions and rapidly released during reductive dissolution of [FeOOH-HPO4]2- complexes, confirming iron as the principal regulator of internal P cycling. Because current numerical models omit iron-driven internal cycling, they cannot accurately predict bioavailable P or ecosystem responses. Overall, the study indicates that localized nutrient enhancement is insufficient to counter long-term oligotrophication, and effective management must integrate nitrogen limitation, internal Fe and P cycling, oceanic exchange, and seasonal variability in Ise and Mikawa Bays.

Extreme climate events are rapidly reshaping ecosystems and contributing to biodiversity loss, yet their long-term impacts remain poorly understood, particularly in marine systems. In 2011, an unprecedented marine heatwave (MHW) on the west coast of Australia drove declines in habitat-forming plants and across taxa spanning multiple trophic levels. Shark Bay, home to an iconic Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) population, endured temperatures 3-5{degrees}C above long-term means, triggering catastrophic seagrass loss. Using 20 years (2003-2023) of dolphin photo-identification data, we fitted a Bayesian Hidden Markov Model to estimate annual, age-class specific survival probabilities, abundance and recruitment rate, and their association with MHW-mediated seagrass loss in the western (WSB) and eastern (ESB) gulfs of Shark Bay. Adult survival declined markedly, from 0.99 (0.98-1.00) pre-MHW to 0.85 (0.79-0.90) post-MHW in WSB, and from 0.96 (0.92-0.98) to 0.89 (0.85-0.95) in ESB, remaining below pre-MHW levels for several years, while juvenile and calf survival declined in both gulfs to a lesser extent. Recruitment declined in both gulfs and, although recovery was evident in WSB from 2019 onward, continued to decline in ESB until the end of the study. These sustained demographic declines drove substantial reductions in population growth and abundance in both WSB (39%) and ESB (36%). Demographic changes were associated with seagrass loss, here a proxy for habitat and prey availability, with clearest support for adult survival in WSB and a two-year-lagged recruitment response in ESB. This pathway is likely to operate across diverse ecosystems as climate change drives increasing loss of habitat-forming species. The severity and duration of these demographic impacts illustrate that habitat change can cascade through trophic systems to overwhelm demographic resilience in upper-trophic species. This has negative implications for even long-lived, K-selected species, whose slow demographic recovery may not keep pace with the accelerating frequency and intensity of climate disturbance.

Human-wildlife conflicts over shared resources are often interpreted as direct competition, whereby resources consumed by wildlife are unavailable to people. Yet, individuals of wild populations can differ in their propensity to exploit resources, and the demographic, ecological, and economic consequences of such behavioural heterogeneity remain poorly understood. We developed an integrated demographic-bioeconomic model of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), grey seals (Halichoerus grypus), and a coastal gillnet fishery. Stage-structured population models incorporated density dependence, predator-prey interactions, adaptive harvesting, and transitions of adult seals into a bold, depredating state. We compared four scenarios of increasing complexity over 50 years across 100 coupled demographic realisations and examined sensitivity to the energetic contribution of depredated catch, harvest levels, and social amplification of depredation behaviour. Cod and seals persisted in all demographic realisations, supporting our ecological-persistence hypothesis. Contrary to our predictions, however, adding bold seals neither reduced long-term fishery performance nor destabilised the system. Median net present value was approximately three-fold greater in the full system than without depredation, and was greater in 76% of paired realisations. The full system was also the most temporally stable: median cod variability declined by 74% relative to the otherwise equivalent fishery without depredation, while seal variability declined by 45%. Behavioural depredation therefore altered predator population structure and imposed direct catch losses, but these effects were counterbalanced by indirect demographic feedbacks. Synthesis and applications. Depredating predators should not necessarily be viewed simply as competitors that reduce contested resources. Behavioural heterogeneity can introduce compensatory pathways that alter population stability and long-term economic outcomes. Management should therefore consider not only predator abundance and immediate catch losses, but also how harvest creates opportunities for behavioural change and how those changes propagate through coupled ecological-economic systems.

Diverse life history strategies allow species to spread risk across a mosaic of habitat conditions. In Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), particularly in the Central Valley of California, this is expressed through varied adult run timings and juvenile outmigration strategies. Anthropogenic impacts, particularly dams, disrupt these fundamental life stage transitions, often forcing managed populations to adapt to homogenized, less stochastic hydrologic regimes. This is exemplified in the Sacramento River, where the conservation of endangered Sacramento River winter run Chinook salmon requires balancing complex water operations with the ecological needs of a population confined to a short stretch of suitable habitat downstream of Shasta Reservoir. Using a 23 year dataset (2002 to 2024), we evaluated the combined effects of flow, temperature, and spawner abundance on juvenile production and life history expression in this habitat. We found that flow and spawner abundance best predicted juvenile abundance at Red Bluff Diversion Dam while temperature had considerably less support. The proportion of juveniles migrating as smolts exhibited significant density dependence that was negatively correlated to both female spawner abundance and peak flows. These results suggest focusing on temperature management alone may be insufficient. Effective management strategies should consider flow variability and habitat restoration to facilitate varying migration strategies and expand upstream rearing capacity. By addressing these physical and hydrologic constraints, managers can better support the full suite of life history strategies necessary for the resilience of winter run Chinook salmon.

Marine species with broad distributions often exhibit complex patterns of genetic connectivity, shaped by historical and contemporary processes. Understanding these patterns is critical for conserving taxa threatened by ongoing and future environmental change. Here, we use reduced-representation and whole-genome sequencing to investigate population genetic patterns in three co-occurring sea snake species (Hydrophis stokesii, Hydrophis major, and Aipysurus laevis) across northern Australia and New Caledonia. Broadscale analyses revealed major genetic breaks across all species between: (1) Australia and New Caledonia, (2) northwestern and northeastern Australia, and (3) the offshore Timor Sea reefs and adjacent northwestern continental shelf of Australia. More subtle genetic differentiation was observed between Shark Bay in Western Australia and northern localities. All species showed relatively large effective population sizes and broadscale connectivity across ~1,300 km of Australia's northwestern continental shelf. This likely reflects substantial historical range expansion over late Quaternary timescales, which may have contributed to the observed genetic connectivity across the region. However, subtle patterns of isolation by distance emphasised the contribution of species-specific traits in shaping connectivity. The isolated offshore reef populations are genetically distinct and potentially threatened by environmental change. Disjunct populations in Shark Bay and the Timor Sea maintain similar levels of genetic diversity to the extensive continental shelf populations, while New Caledonian populations exhibit reduced diversity. Our results support the delineation of spatial units for sea snake conservation based on shared phylogeographic structure, while also finding important population- and species-specific differences in connectivity at finer spatial and temporal scales.

Understanding the consequences of global change for our ecosystems requires reliable, accurate, and scalable tools for detecting ecological change. To this end, recent efforts have focused on scaling up the quantification of demographic processes from individual organisms (the fundamental ecological unit) to the larger spatial scales they inhabit to yield more precise and informative estimations of ecological change, especially in response to disturbance. Here, we describe a transferable workflow that combines robust underwater photogrammetry techniques with machine-learning-assisted image analysis to quantify demographic changes in coral colonies (growth, stasis, partial mortality, and complete mortality) through time on the reef landscape. We then demonstrate several analytical applications of this workflow that can be broadly applied to sessile and/or clonal organisms in other ecosystems. First, we tracked the fates of 3,162 coral colonies through a marine heatwave that caused substantial mortality. Second, our approach enabled detection of size- and taxon-dependent patterns in demographic changes from before to after the heatwave. Finally, for a subset (425) of these colonies, we further demonstrated how our method can be used to track fates across multiple years, including a year of change before and after the heatwave took place, revealing nuanced patterns of survival and mortality, as well as changes in size structure that occurred before and after the disturbance. Our workflow offers an important advance for increasing the accuracy of change detection on coral reefs and other ecosystems by linking demographic changes in individual organisms with spatially extensive image-based surveys through time.

The Olympia oyster (Ostrea lurida) was once a major food source and a key component of coastal marine ecosystems and culture on the US West Coast. Overfishing and habitat contamination in the early to mid-20th century severely depleted populations of Olympia oysters, and the species is currently considered a species of concern. Although multiple restoration efforts are underway, progress understanding the species biology and recovery potential has been limited by the historical lack of genomic resources. Here, we report a chromosome-level assembly of the Olympia oyster. The assembly was built using Oxford Nanopore reads and Hi-C to obtain a highly contiguous 1.03 Gb-assembly consisting of 10 chromosomes. RNA from gills, mantle, adductor muscle, and a mix of brooding eggs and larvae were also sequenced as 150 nt long paired-end reads which were used to guide the genome annotation. Over 52 K genes were predicted in the genome, of which 34K were protein-coding. A BUSCO analysis on the assembly showed 98.9% of the mollusca_odb12 gene set were complete (with 2.1% duplicated, and 0.8% missing). The short RNA reads were also used to identify tissue-level gene expression signatures in adductor muscles, egg and brooding larvae, and mantle. Development-related genes were highly expressed in eggs and brooding larvae whereas many xenobiotic metabolism genes were present in mantle tissues, highlighting mantles role in the interaction of the oyster with external environments. This new genomic resource will greatly advance our understanding of this keystone mollusk and provide a critical tool for guiding restoration efforts and the development of sustainable commercial production.

(1) Kelp forests support ecologically, commercially, and culturally important species, yet their benthic communities remain difficult to monitor consistently across space and time. Scientific SCUBA surveys provide valuable observations but can be constrained by safety, bottom time, depth, and the spatial extent that divers can efficiently cover, motivating complementary approaches for collecting standardized benthic imagery. (2) We developed and field-tested a standardized, open-source framework for benthic visual-imaging surveys using a small, modular remotely operated vehicle (ROV). Across four cost-scalable hardware configurations, we integrated navigation sensors, custom BlueOS Extensions, and our surftrak contribution to ArduSub, which enables fixed-altitude flight above the seafloor, and developed two open-source desktop applications that streamline field operations (rov_flight_ops) and imagery processing (rov_imagery_processing). We also evaluated power supplies, benthic lighting, camera settings, field protocols, and telemetry-processing workflows over 303 transects conducted on 64 survey days from 2022 to 2026. (3) The ROV operated across soft-sediment and rocky habitats, currents of 0-3 kt, and underwater visibility of 0-10 m. surftrak held the ROV within 0.2 m of its target altitude for 96% of 21 h of survey transects, producing an approximately 1 m^2 standardized image footprint. Sufficient illumination and optimized camera settings yielded high-resolution imagery in visibility below 2 m, while topside power increased endurance and operational flexibility. Combining Doppler velocity log and underwater acoustic positioning data through the vehicle's extended Kalman filter improved navigation and post hoc transect reconstruction. During 2026 surveys, rov_flight_ops and rov_imagery_processing automated flight logging, log retrieval, fault diagnosis, and the sorting, development, and telemetry annotation of survey imagery. Dense kelp canopies nevertheless constrained vehicle operation, and downward-facing imagery provided limited observations of cryptic or obscured organisms. (4) We provide configuration-specific bills of materials, hardware and wiring documentation, software and firmware inventories, camera settings, open-source field and imagery-processing software, step-by-step field protocols, and pre- and post-dive checklists to support replication and adaptation of the framework. Together, these resources provide a field-tested starting point for expanding standardized benthic imaging while complementing diver surveys across kelp forests and other shallow coastal ecosystems.

The health and wellbeing of living organisms and the environment are irrevocably interconnected. Animals constantly shape the environments in which they live, and environmental factors, in turn, shape the minds and behaviours of animals. The emerging discipline of environmental neuroscience studies this reciprocal interaction and offers a unique opportunity to integrate sustainability into undergraduate training. Here, we present and evaluate Forging Sustainable Research, an interdisciplinary undergraduate course that integrates teaching of neuroscience, biology, psychology, environmental science, and sustainable development. Students explore how research in these fields can be interlinked 24 and re-oriented towards addressing emerging environmental challenges. In parallel, students learn how to measure and mitigate the environmental impact of research activities. Student feedback suggests that the course is effective at raising awareness and understanding of sustainability in research, while also enhancing student perception of their own ability to promote positive change. As climate and ecosystem change impact all sectors, sustainability awareness in academic and professional spaces is increasingly sought after. Students in the course therefore receive training in transferable skills relevant for diverse career paths. In the long term, this course may serve as model for direct integration of sustainability training into undergraduate curricula in the natural sciences.

Environmental concerns and the need to mitigate the effects of climate change have driven the adoption of renewable energy sources, such as offshore wind farms (OWFs), making it essential to assess their overlap with seabird habitats to estimate potential impacts. This study is the first to estimate the vulnerability of coastal and seabirds to OWFs at a national scale by integrating biological trait data from the literature, spatial occurrence records from citizen science platforms, and expert knowledge (elicited from 23 specialists) into established quantitative risk frameworks. Collision risk and susceptibility scores were calculated at the family and subfamily levels, as well as disturbance and displacement indices by species and susceptibility by state. The groups with the highest collision risk and susceptibility were Fregatidae (0.354; 0.486), Sulidae (0.199; 0.419), Sterninae (0.190; 0.384) and Diomedeidae (0.190; 0.416). The extreme risk for Fregatidae is driven by their specific flight characteristics, with impacts concentrated in the highly frequented southeast and northeast regions. Regarding disturbance and displacement, Limnodromus griseus exhibited the highest national score (MMA: 0.098), while Diomedea dabbenena had the highest global score (IUCN: 0.092), highlighting the critical need to integrate both regional and global conservation statuses. Spatially, the state exhibiting the highest overall vulnerability to OWF impacts was Rio Grande do Sul (23.78; 10.69), a critical hotspot characterized by high species richness and oceanographic productivity. These findings establish an indispensable national baseline for Marine Spatial Planning, reinforcing the need for targeted pre-installation assessments, the identification of sentinel species, and spatially differentiated management during environmental licensing processes.

Climate change poses a major threat to marine mammal populations, many of which remain vulnerable after years of overexploitation during the 17th to 20th centuries. Extreme climate events have grown in both frequency and severity in recent decades, and this trend is projected to accelerate under continued greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we assess how this intensification affects a top marine predator at the epicentre of extreme El Nino events - the Peruvian population of Otaria byronia (South American sea lion). We first apply a Bayesian population model that best predicts observed population dynamics to reconstruct female O. byronia population trends, estimate vital rates, and evaluate the effects of environmental drivers on survival and reproduction. We then use the same model to project extirpation risk under multiple future climate scenarios reflecting anticipated increases in both the intensity and frequency of extreme El Nino events. Our reconstruction reveals that the Peruvian O. byronia population has shown considerable resilience to episodic El Nino events over the past quarter-century, likely sustained by high female survival during normal and favourable years. However, under a scenario of moderate increases in El Nino frequency and intensity, the probability of extirpation over the next 50 years is 83.4% higher than under current conditions. As disturbance regimes intensify globally, we suggest that resilience-oriented management frameworks, grounded in species-specific demographic data and environmental context, as demonstrated here, will be essential for safeguarding marine mammal populations against an increasingly volatile climate.

The transcriptomic interaction between altered gravity and innate immunity remains largely unexplored. In this study, we established a novel dual-stress model combining 3g hypergravity with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) immune challenge in 5 days post-fertilization (dpf) zebrafish (Danio rerio) larvae. RNA sequencing revealed that exposure to hypergravity alone induced no differentially expressed genes (DEGs), indicating a remarkable transcriptional resilience. In contrast, the addition of an immune challenge under hypergravity conditions triggered a substantial transcriptomic response involving 2,706 DEGs. Functional enrichment analyses identified significant alterations in pathways related to immune function, development, and circadian regulation. Targeted qPCR analyses further validated the expression patterns of selected genes. These findings suggest that while zebrafish larvae can effectively tolerate hypergravity alone, the combination of gravitational and immune stressors elicits profound molecular responses. This study provides new insights into the interplay between altered gravity and innate immunity using an animal model, contributing to future strategies aimed at safeguarding astronaut health and supporting space-based aquaculture systems.

The rapid global expansion of dams has significantly reshaped freshwater ecosystems, yet long-term trophic dynamics and food-web stability within reservoirs remain underexplored. This study examines the reorganization of fish communities induced by the trophic surge following dam construction and river impoundment. We used the predator-to-consumer mass ratio (PCMR) as a proxy for trophic pyramid structure to track changes in fish biomass distribution across three large boreal reservoirs in Quebec, Canada, over 20 years, using data from before and after impoundment. We found transient top-heaviness events (i.e., PCMR values > 1; predator accumulation), characterized by a hump-shaped trajectory of the PCMR values in two reservoirs (Opinaca and Robert Bourassa). The third reservoir (Caniapiscau) showed a gradual increase in top-heaviness but did not exhibit a clear transient pattern. The magnitude and duration of top-heaviness varied across reservoirs, potentially due to differences in the system's capacity to receive and accumulate nutrients, which are driven by water residence time and reservoir size. This research provides a conceptual framework for understanding the long-term trophic dynamics of reservoirs, which can help inform the development of more effective management strategies to preserve ecological health in these ecosystems.

The increased frequency and intensity of coral bleaching events expose reefs to disturbance-recovery cycles that threaten their long-term dynamics. Understanding the impact of thermal stress requires evaluating coral mortality and recovery rates after disturbances. By integrating two long-term monitoring datasets, we examined coral mortality and recovery patterns at 13 sites in Mo'orea, French Polynesia, following the 2019 bleaching event, the most severe heat stress on record for the island. The maximum accumulated heat stress (AHSmax) varied from 5.76 to 6.26 {degrees} C weeks and enabled a direct analysis of heat-stress-related mortality. One year after bleaching, Pocillopora mortality increased with AHSmax, reducing mean coral cover from 35% to 17%. Regardless of AHSmax, Acropora mortality was high at all sites (median: 84%), reducing mean cover from 5% to 1% and indicating greater heat tolerance of Pocillopora than Acropora. Within four years after the bleaching event, no recovery occurred, and coral cover further declined relative to pre-bleaching levels. This decline was stronger for sites exposed to more intense heat stress. The impact of colony size was assessed by tracking 3090 individual Pocillopora colonies over six years and estimating size-dependent mortality and growth with a Bayesian mixed model. Immediately after the bleaching event, large Pocillopora corals exhibited a higher probability of complete and partial mortality than smaller colonies, highlighting size-specific consequences of bleaching. Even three years after the heat stress ended, large Pocillopora corals remained stressed, as evidenced by the continuously high probability of partial mortality. The lack of recovery observed here may be related to increased spatial competition with macroalgae. The disappearance of large fecund colonies and high mortality of coral recruits could have catastrophic consequences for the resilience of Mo'orea's reefs.

Blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. ovata can cause respiratory irritation in beach users, yet their environmental drivers and temporal dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we use a dynamical-systems approach to investigate how environmental conditions shape bloom dynamics from long-term time series of algal abundance and abiotic variables. Using the global modelling framework GPoM, we reconstruct nonlinear ordinary differential equation systems and identify candidate models capable of reproducing key features of the observed dynamics, including chaotic behaviour. Topological and statistical analyses reduce the candidate models to two systems that best capture the observed distributions and dynamical patterns. These models reveal distinct combinations of environmental conditions associated with bloom occurrence and amplitude, providing a framework for interpreting bloom trajectories and a potential basis for short-term prediction.